Windows 8 on tablets. Genius?

There has been a lot of debate on sites such as Daring Fireball about Microsoft’s strategy of putting Windows 8 on tablets, rather than a version of Windows Phone 7 optimised for tablets. As Gruber puts it:

I’m hung up on the question of how any OS that lets you do everything Windows does could compete with the iPad, because the iPad’s appeal and success is largely forged by the advantages that come from not allowing you to do so many of the things Mac OS X can do.

If you haven’t read it yet go ahead. It’s an interesting read. A tablet is a device between a computer and a phone. Apple and Microsoft are approaching it from polar opposite directions. Apple is treating the iPad sort of like an enlarged iPhone, while Microsoft is approaching it sort of like a Macbook Air (or insert your favourite PC ultraportable here) without a keyboard. Where both their strategies converge is that they’re primarily focusing on the mobile style UI. In Windows 8 the classical UI is still around, but much of the buzz has been around the Metro user experience.

The thought is that Windows 8 tablets would compete better with the iPad if it ditched the classic underpinnings and went solely with Metro. I think that they did this for one primary reason: developers.

Windows Phone 7, and Metro in particular, has got even Mac fans like Gruber interested in it. No one can argue it is not innovative and original. Its not just another iOS clone. However, even though pundits and the press talk about it and it has mindshare, it hasn’t (yet at least) made a breakthrough in terms of marketshare or critical user mass. Windows Phone 7 or 8 on tablets would be starting from scratch, without a critical mass of developers behind it. Unless you’re a huge software house with a lot of resources, it is hard to make the case for making Windows Phone 7 tablet applications. It’s a chicken an egg situation. Developers are more likely to write apps if there are users, and users are more likely to buy into the platform if there are apps available. It would be a big risk for Microsoft, and they’d have to throw a lot of money at it.

Microsoft always have one ace up its sleeve though. Windows. I would guess that Windows has the biggest developer community in the world (except perhaps the Web). If you can write Windows applications using Metro and associated APIs and it is promoted as the way to make future Windows applications, then overnight you have a huge developer community motivated and ready to write Windows 8 apps. Apps that will just work (in theory) on Windows 8 tablets. Without developers even considering tablets, there will be a critical mass of Metro apps within a relatively short period of time. Add to this that Metro apps can be built with Web technologies, then they could have the two of the biggest developer communities developing for their platform. Granted there are also no users of Windows 8 yet, but history is on its side. Even universally panned versions like Vista sold incredibly well.

With this strategy Microsoft have had to make compromises as Gruber pointed out. But they may give the platform more chance of success by going with their dominant platform. With enough Metro apps the platform might just stand a chance of getting enough users. If this happens the platform will be a target for developers in its own right (which also may have a knock on effect for Windows Phone). It can then consider dropping the classic Windows experience on tablets and give it the experience that they may have been planning all along. Something more akin to Windows Phone. When Apple switched from OS 9 to OS X they supplied classic for the transition period then removed it. When they switched from PPC to Intel they provided Rosetta, then removed it. Could Microsoft be following a similar strategy?

8 months ago  /  7 notes  /